The Economic Shift is Permanent


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An Age of Abundance

The latter effect could strengthen the incentives for labour-market investments in the host country and improve integration. One aspect increased the time a refugee would need to be a legal resident on a temporary residence permit before being eligible to apply for permanent residency. During this temporary status, a residence permit could be withdrawn if the grounds for protection were no longer valid , and if the individual did not have the right to stay on other grounds.

The explicit aim of this reform package was to limit the number of asylum seekers in Denmark and speed up the integration process The Danish Immigration Service, In addition to these changes in the residency requirements, the package also implied other changes. We are able to isolate the effect of changes to the eligibility for permanent residency from other parts of the reform package as this was the only component introduced retroactively, and it applied to all individuals who lodged their asylum application on or after 28 February the date when the new bill was proposed.

Shift in the global economic balance

The other components of the reform package took effect after the bill was passed on 1 July Furthermore, in case of an exceptionally successful integration for example, full employment throughout the period , it was possible to receive a permanent permit after only three years of legal residency. The law strengthened the integration motive.


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We compared the outcomes for refugees who came just before the reform to those who came after. Danish register data allowed us to track individuals granted asylum, and a large set of their outcomes, over time. Our main outcomes were educational investments and status in the labour market. Job seeking can, in itself, be viewed as a measure of integration, whereas education can be considered as an investment in integration.

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While the reform we study in this paper is in many ways ideal for analysing the effect of prolonged temporary status, the sample size is small, and we need to be careful when interpreting our results. Our results suggest that lowering the ex-ante probability of receiving permanent residency increased enrolment in education. Enrolment is measured as the share that is ever enrolled in education, excluding Danish courses, during the first 12 years of residency in Denmark.

We also show that enrolment rates are higher for the treatment group throughout the sample period. Mainly women and low-skilled individuals increase their enrolment. Hence, the positive effect on enrolment in education is an increased investment in human capital and integration. In terms of labour-market outcomes, we focus on the share of individuals that are ever employed or self-employed during the first 12 years in Denmark, and on their earnings measured three and seven years after arrival.

While there is no impact on the full sample, women and high-skilled workers tend to be negatively affected by the reform in terms of income. A final question is whether the law did limit immigration. The answer seems to be no. The reform did not necessarily change whether an individual got to stay in Denmark or not. In total, the stricter immigration policy improved integration in Denmark as although all immigrants were worse off, the conditions were relatively better for well-integrated immigrants and thereby the law raised incentives to integrate.

However, it did come at a cost in terms of more uncertainty and lower wages for female and high-skilled immigrants. And if the main political agenda was to reduce immigration, this part of the law change did not have the intended impact. What may other countries learn from the Danish experience of increasing the number of years before immigrants can apply for permanent residency?

In case different rules apply for well-integrated workers compared to other workers, educational enrolment may increase. Fiscal policy will also support recovery as the need for austerity becomes less acute most of the biggest adjustments have already been made.


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    Latin America endured an economic slowdown in , on the back of less-favourable conditions in capital markets and weak demand in Europe and China, which has hit South American commodity exports. Political unrest and instability continue to hamper economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa region.

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    A Temporary Shift: What happens when immigrants have to wait longer to obtain permanent residency?

    The Syrian civil war shows all the signs of being prolonged, leading to long-term economic damage. More positively, the deal agreed between Iran and the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany reinforces the slightly improved outlook for the Iranian economy. However, the fact that key oil and financial sanctions remain in place, combined with the difficulty of restarting oil production, means that the Iranian economy will remain weak, despite returning to growth in The EIU expects regional growth to recover to 3.

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    Sub-Saharan African growth is expected to pick up from 3. That said, the mixed outlook for commodity prices could affect future investment levels, potentially jeopardising growth. Exchange rates will provide one of the clearest triggers for global economic trends during Many emerging-market currencies have been volatile against the US dollar since the Federal Reserve first hinted at a reduction in its monthly bond purchases — and that volatility has returned as improving US economic data has renewed investor anticipation of QE tapering.

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    We welcome, Revident d. Articles from News shift in the global economic balance.


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    Shift in the global economic balance. Money goes West The shift began when governments in many Asian countries, particularly in India and Indonesia, manipulated markets in , leading to a variety of distortions, from state-directed lending to capital controls, trade protectionism and import substitution.

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    For example, analysts from the Economist Intelligence Unit EIU forecast a slump in property prices in Hong Kong in although they say the downturn could begin at any time , despite government interventions to cool the market. Economic shift outlook Exchange rates will provide one of the clearest triggers for global economic trends during UHY strengthens presence in Europe.

    UHY strengthens presence in the Americas.

    The Economic Shift is Permanent The Economic Shift is Permanent
    The Economic Shift is Permanent The Economic Shift is Permanent
    The Economic Shift is Permanent The Economic Shift is Permanent
    The Economic Shift is Permanent The Economic Shift is Permanent
    The Economic Shift is Permanent The Economic Shift is Permanent

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